Update 21.10.2026, 08:28: The ONS reported that CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in September 2026 (from 3.1% in August) – more than expected (3.4%). Services inflation rose to 3.7%, and core inflation to 2.8%. According to Reuters, the data strengthen the case for a Bank of England rate rise in November. More: UK inflation jumps to 3.5%.
Update 19.10.2026: According to market pricing reported by investingLive, investors put the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate rise on 5 November at about 95% and expect another by February 2027. On Wednesday 21 October the ONS will publish September inflation – the forecast is 3.4% (core 2.8%) against 3.1% in August. Brent crude fell by 1.9% on Monday, to $107.8, after President Trump held off new sanctions on Russia. These are forecasts and market pricing, not decisions – the Bank of England will announce its own on 5 November.
The Bank of England’s base rate is 3.75%. At its last meeting on 17 September 2026 it was left unchanged. The next decision will be taken on 5 November 2026.
CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August from 2.9% in July. The main cause was higher fuel prices. Brent crude costs more than $100 a barrel. The Bank of England’s chief economist Huw Pill said the bank should have responded to inflationary pressure earlier.
The economy is growing slowly: GDP rose by 0.1% in August and by 0.7% over three months. Some economists expect a rate rise in November, others expect rates to stay unchanged.
Editorial comment
For small businesses, interest rates mean above all the cost of working capital loans, leasing and buy-to-let mortgages. If you have a variable-rate loan, a possible rise will push up repayments within weeks. Higher inflation also means pressure on wages and suppliers’ prices. It is a good moment to check your margins before costs eat your profit.
What to do
- Check which loans and leases you have on a variable rate, and calculate how much your repayment would rise with a 0.25 percentage point increase.
- If your fixed-rate period is ending, talk to your bank or broker before 5 November.
- Review your prices and margins. With 3% inflation and rising fuel costs, your old price list may no longer cover your costs.
- Businesses dealing in both złoty and pounds: follow the exchange rate. Bank of England decisions affect the value of the pound.
What do you think?
Do you feel this threat in your business? What are you already doing, and what worries you? Tell us in the comments below the article. We will cover the most interesting views in future editions.
Sources
- ONS: Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026
- Bank of England: base rate
- Investment Week: inflation 3.1%
- CPA, 15.10.2026
- investingLive: UK inflation set to climb as BOE rate hike and autumn budget collide
- THE BUSINESS TIME: Trump holds off new sanctions on Russia
Original editorial content by The Business Time, based on the sources listed. Illustrative photo.
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