World events that affect business and life in the UK.
European ministers did not want a photo with Lavrov, and the US cancelled the G20 "family photo". Lavrov attacked Poland, while Sikorski called for a ceasefire in the Black Sea. The facts, our view and what it means for Poles in the UK.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said three tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz, caught fire and were abandoned. An oil slick has reached the coast of the United Arab Emirates. For UK businesses, it is a sign that transport and fuel costs may stay high for a long time.
The UK will give Ukraine a further £10bn of economic and military support. The package includes World Bank guarantees, £500m for air defence and a higher UK Export Finance limit, which UK businesses can also benefit from.
On 30–31 October Marco Rubio hosts G20 foreign ministers in Atlanta. Poland is represented by Radosław Sikorski, Russia by Sergei Lavrov, who is under US sanctions. The meeting prepares December’s summit in Miami, and the US wants Poland to become a permanent G20 member.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre spoke with Vladimir Putin for 90 minutes and urged him to end the war. It is a rare break in European policy towards the Kremlin. Denmark and Sweden are sceptical, and Prime Minister Tusk calls for vigilance.
Ukraine is around €70bn short of the money it needs to fund the state in 2027. EU leaders will address this at a special summit on 26–27 November, alongside the dispute over the Union’s new budget. Part of the money is expected to come from non-EU countries, including the UK.
Israelis are electing the 120-seat Knesset on Tuesday, for the first time since the war in Gaza began. Polls give Eisenkot’s bloc a slight lead over Netanyahu’s, but neither has 61 seats. The result will affect the situation in the Middle East and, through it, energy prices in the UK and Poland.
Wholesale gas prices in Europe have passed €97 per megawatt-hour, the highest since 2022. LNG deliveries from the Persian Gulf have fallen by about 80%, and EU storage is less than 75% full. This could push up UK bills from the new year and raise business costs.
Bulgaria’s incumbent president Iliana Iotova, an advocate of dialogue with Russia, won the first round with 34.76%. Pro-European Andrey Gyurov took 31.94%. The result will be decided in a run-off on 1 November. We explain what it could mean for EU policy on Ukraine and for business.
Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential run-off with more than 51% of the vote. Flavio Bolsonaro says he will try to have the vote annulled. We explain what a win for a supporter of the EU–Mercosur agreement means for Polish farmers, exporters and businesses in the UK.
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