Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won Brazil’s presidential election and will begin a fourth term. In the run-off on Sunday 25 October he won more than 51% of the vote, and his rival, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, 48%. Victory was declared after 98.76% of ballots had been counted.
This reverses the first-round result (4 October), in which Bolsonaro led with 47.03% against 45.16% for Lula. Turnout then was a record low – about 21% of eligible voters did not vote.
Flavio Bolsonaro did not accept the result. He said he would seek to have the vote annulled and criticised the extension of polling station hours. After his victory, Lula spoke of a “defeat for lies” and of overcoming “interference from outside”, referring among other things to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump’s administration.
What this has to do with Poland
Brazil is the largest economy in the Mercosurbloc. The interim EU–Mercosur trade agreement has applied since 1 May 2026. In January it was backed by 21 of the 27 EU states – Poland was against. On 29 September the Court of Justice of the EU rejected Poland’s request to suspend the agreement. Full ratification still requires the approval of the European Parliament and national parliaments.
Lula is one of the main supporters of the agreement, so his win means continuity rather than a turn in Brazil’s trade policy.
What it means for you
- Farmers and processors in Poland: competition from South American imports (including beef, poultry and sugar) remains – Polish farmers have protested against the agreement many times.
- Polish exporters: the agreement lowers barriers to trade with Brazil. The government points out that Polish agri-food exports to Mercosur are growing.
- Businesses in the UK: the United Kingdom is not a party to the EU–Mercosur agreement and pursues its own trade policy towards Brazil.
Our assessment
For Europe, the result means predictability: the partner on the other side of the agreement is not changing. The risk is a dispute over the result in Brazil itself if Flavio Bolsonaro really goes to court. In Poland, the Mercosur issue will return when the European Parliament votes on ratification.
What to do
- Exporting from Poland? Check tariffs and rules of origin in the Access2Markets database (European Commission).
- A UK company trading with Brazil: check duties at GOV.UK – Check duties and customs.
More on this topic: US tariffs in autumn 2026: what a company from Poland pays today, and what one from the UK pays.
Source: Al Jazeera, “Brazil election results 2026: Key takeaways from Lula’s historic win” (26.10.2026); Notes from Poland (29.09.2026).
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