Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (RPP) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday 4 November, together with a new National Bank of Poland (NBP) inflation projection. Economists almost unanimously expect the reference rate to stay at 3.75%.
What economists expect
According to a PAP Biznes survey reported by TVN24 Biznes, only one of 19 institutions expects a rise in November. Three see a possible rise by the end of 2026. Most expect no change in December and through to the third quarter of 2027, with a first 0.25-point cut only at the end of 2027.
The reference rate has been 3.75% since a cut in March. The Council has held rates at every meeting since then.
Inflation fell more than expected
The main argument for calm is the latest official data. According to Statistics Poland’s (GUS) flash estimate, inflation fell to 3.5% year on year in October from 4.1% in September. The market expected 3.7%. Prices fell by 0.4% over the month, mainly thanks to cheaper fuel (−9.7% m/m). Fuel is still 21.7% more expensive than a year ago, however, and electricity, gas and other fuels 6% more. Inflation is at the upper edge of the NBP target (2.5% ± 1 point).
Economists at Erste said lower inflation had reduced the risk of a rise and that the Council would stay in “wait-and-see” mode. PKO BP expects the new projection to reassure the Council.
Changes at the NBP
The term of NBP deputy governor Adam Lipiński ends on 4 November. President Karol Nawrocki has sent the Prime Minister nominations for four NBP board members for countersignature.
What it means for Poles in the UK
Thesis: for Poles in Britain, what matters is not only the RPP decision but the gap between Polish and UK rates. The Bank of England announces its decision in the same week, on Thursday 5 November.
Evidence and effects:
- Loans in Poland: borrowers with variable-rate zloty loans should see little change in repayments if rates are unchanged. Repayments follow benchmark rates (WIBOR or WIRON), which react to market expectations.
- Sending pounds to Poland: the zloty exchange rate is influenced by interest rate differences, among other things. If the Bank of England moves and the RPP does not, GBP/PLN may fluctuate. Large transfers can be spread over time and rates compared.
- Savings in Poland: stable rates usually mean stable deposit rates. If the Council starts cutting in later months, deposit rates usually fall.
The RPP decision is usually published in the afternoon, and NBP governor Adam Glapiński comments on it at a press conference the next day. We will report on the outcome and the new inflation projection.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
Sources:
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