Budget on 28 October: what we already know and what is only speculation

Update, 28 October 2026, 10:25: The Budget will be delivered TODAY. Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey will address the House of Commons at around 12:30 UK time. It is his first Budget. So far the Treasury has not officially announced any new decisions – everything the media are reporting (including ISAs for first-time buyers, a cap on bus fares and pensions) is still unofficial. As soon as the Chancellor has spoken and the Budget documents are published on GOV.UK, we will update this article with what was actually announced and what it means for Polish businesses and families in the UK.

Update, 22 October 2026, 11:00: Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey said in an interview with The Times that his first Budget (Wednesday 28 October) will address the cost of doing business and is meant to support “bloody-minded entrepreneurs”, meaning stubborn, bold business owners. He acknowledged that firms are feeling rising costs, including the increase in employer National Insurance contributions from 13.8% to 15%. He gave no specific changes. According to media reports, a higher tax on banks is possible – for now these are unofficial reports.

Update, 21 October 2026, 08:28: A week before the Budget, the ONS reported that inflation rose to 3.5% in September, mainly because of fuel. According to Reuters, this will increase pressure on Chancellor John Healey to help the households hardest hit by energy costs. The Scottish and Welsh governments sent a letter on 20 October demanding that the benefit cap be scrapped and bills be cut (more).

Update, 20 October 2026, 22:10: According to press reports (The Times, and earlier the Financial Times), Chancellor John Healey has rejected the idea of raising capital gains tax (CGT) to the level of income tax. CGT rates are currently 18% and 24%. Those in favour of an increase included allies of Prime Minister Andy Burnham. The Treasury does not officially confirm this — it says tax decisions will be announced by the Chancellor in the Budget on 28 October. A smaller change to CGT is still possible. The media are also writing about a new relief for entrepreneurs who invest in British start-ups after selling their business — this is unofficial for now.

The Budget will be delivered on Wednesday 28 October 2026. The government says it does not plan to raise the basic rates of income tax, VAT or National Insurance contributions.

Already decided: VAT on household electricity fell from 5% to 0% from 1 October 2026. From April 2027, pubs, clubs and music venues in England will get a 20% reduction in business rates. From 6 April 2027, unused pension funds will form part of the estate for inheritance tax. Making Tax Digital will cover people with self-employment or rental income above £30,000 from April 2027. Fuel duty is frozen until 31 December 2026 and, without an extension, will rise in January and March 2027.

Speculation: changes to Business Asset Disposal Relief (the relief on selling a business), to capital gains tax, to employment costs (the Employment Allowance, reliefs for employing people under 25) and an increase in the small business rate relief threshold from £12,000 to £15,000. The media are also writing about higher business rates for properties worth more than £500,000. None of these changes has been confirmed.

Editorial comment

Before a Budget, the most expensive decisions are those made in a panic. If you are planning to sell a business, pay a dividend or make a large purchase, talk to your accountant before 28 October, but do not change your plans just because of leaks. For many Polish sole traders in the UK, April 2027 and Making Tax Digital matter more than the Budget, because they mean a new way of reporting to HMRC.

What to do

• Check whether your self-employment or rental income exceeds £30,000. If it does, Making Tax Digital will apply to you from April 2027 and you will need compatible accounting software.
• If you are planning to sell your business or take out a large amount of profit, discuss the timing with your accountant before 28 October.
• Owners of pubs and live music venues in England: check whether you will qualify for the 20% business rates reduction from April 2027.
• Businesses with vehicle fleets: allow in your budget for a possible rise in fuel duty from January 2027.
• Come back to this article today after 12:30 – we will report only what the Chancellor actually announces.

What do you think?

Do you feel this threat in your business? What are you already doing, and what are you worried about? Tell us in the comments below the article. We will feature the most interesting views in future editions.

Sources

• MoneyWeek: Autumn Budget 2026 – time of the statement and pre-Budget reports (27 October 2026)
• Brit Brief: Healey on a Budget for entrepreneurs (via The Times, 22 October 2026)
• Reuters (via Investing.com): UK inflation picks up more than expected to 3.5%
• Simply Business: Budget predictions
• CPA, 15 October 2026
• Ross Martin: Budget date
• Money to the Masses: Healey rejects aligning CGT with income tax
• AGCC: press review, 20 October 2026 (via The Times)

Original reporting by The Business Time editorial team based on the sources listed. Illustrative photo.