Polish manufacturing has stopped shrinking. The PMI index, which tracks conditions and activity in factories every month, rose to 50.0 points in October 2026 from 49.0 in September. The data were published by S&P Global on Monday 2 November. It is the best reading since April 2025 – an 18-month high. Economists had expected 49.4 on average.
What the index shows
A PMI of 50 marks the line between contraction and growth. According to S&P Global, the October reading ends almost a year and a half of deteriorating conditions in manufacturing and equals the long-run average since the survey began in 1998.
Key findings:
- Employment rose – only the second time in 18 months. Firms hired in preparation for higher output and expected orders, though the pace of hiring was modest.
- Export orders rose for the first time since November 2025.
- Total new orders still fell, but at the slowest rate in a year.
- Output was stable, with its index at a five-month high.
- Costs – input prices rose at the fastest rate since June.
- Expectations for the next 12 months weakened.
Trevor Balchin, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that alongside the improvement there were weaker signals: softer expectations for the year ahead and a sharp rise in input prices.
What it means for Poles in the UK
Our view: this is stabilisation, not a boom. For people thinking of returning to Poland to work in industry, it is cautiously good news – factories are starting to hire again, but slowly and without much confidence about next year.
Evidence: the rise in employment is only the second such month in a year and a half, while firms have lowered their expectations for the next 12 months. One good reading does not make a trend – it is worth watching the coming months before deciding to change jobs.
For Polish businesses in Britain
- Suppliers in Poland: Polish factories report the fastest rise in input costs for months. UK firms buying building materials, furniture or components in Poland should expect suppliers to try to raise prices.
- Exports: the first rise in export orders in a year means Polish manufacturers are again looking for customers abroad. For agents and distributors in the UK this is an opportunity to discuss new contracts.
- Currency and costs: the PMI says nothing about the zloty or sterling, but higher production costs in Poland may eventually feed into export prices. In longer contracts it is worth setting out price-adjustment terms.
What to watch
S&P Global will publish the next PMI for Poland in early December. If the index stays above 50 and employment keeps rising, it will be possible to talk about the start of a recovery. If it falls back, October will prove a one-off.
Sources:
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