On Tuesday 3 November Americans elect a new Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election, along with governors in 36 states and thousands of local contests. President Donald Trump is not on the ballot and will remain in the White House whatever the result, but midterms are widely seen as a verdict on his first two years.
The balance of power before the vote
Republicans currently hold majorities in both chambers – 53 to 47 in the Senate. According to Euronews, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of each chamber.
The latest polls, compiled by Forbes, show Democrats ahead on the national generic ballot (Silver Bulletin average: 51.5% to 42.6%). Senate races are more mixed: Democratic candidates lead in some states, Republicans in others such as Florida, while polls in Nebraska and South Carolina point to a tie. Polls are not results – they have often been off by several points in the past.
Euronews lists the cost of living, the economy, immigration and foreign policy among the key campaign issues.
When the results come
The first polling stations on the US east coast close overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday UK time, when the first results will appear. Final outcomes in close races may take several days.
What it means for Poles in the UK and Polish businesses
The argument: the result in Washington will feed into decisions that affect Europe too. The evidence lies in Congress’s constitutional powers – it passes the budget and federal spending, including foreign aid. The Senate approves treaties and confirms nominations, including ambassadors and cabinet members.
- If Republicans hold both chambers – as Euronews notes – the president will have a clearer path to passing legislation.
- If Democrats take one or both chambers – the White House will have to negotiate the budget and major bills with the opposition.
For UK businesses that trade in dollars or export to the US, election night may bring sharper moves in sterling against the dollar and in share prices. It is wise not to make large currency transactions on Wednesday morning without hedging.
For Poland and the region, US policy on European security and the war in Ukraine will be key, and Congress has a say through budget decisions. It would be premature, however, to predict how the new Congress will act – that depends on the final balance of power and specific votes.
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