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Tuesday, 3 November 2026 Business · World · Analysis
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EU deal could add 0.4% to GDP. 20 November summit: food, emissions and youth mobility

Prime Minister Andy Burnham wants to lock in deals on food, emissions trading and youth mobility with the EU in Brussels on 20 November. The Treasury says they could add up to 0.4% to GDP. The PM denies proposing a return to free movement.

Budynek Berlaymont, siedziba Komisji Europejskiej w Brukseli
Photo: Andersen Pecorone, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

Prime Minister Andy Burnham wants the UK and the EU to lock in agreements on food and drink, emissions trading and a youth mobility scheme at a summit in Brussels on 20 November. On Tuesday 3 November he said Treasury figures showed the deals could add up to 0.4% to UK GDP, up from an earlier estimate of 0.3%.

What is on the table

According to the BBC, cited by ITV News, a draft food and agriculture text has been circulated among the 27 EU member states, with similar documents on emissions trading and youth mobility. Details of the youth scheme – age range and length of stay – have not been published.

After the summit the government wants to “explore options” for the long-term relationship, to be put to the public.

Free movement? The PM says no

Speaking to ITV News, Mr Burnham said: “I have not proposed freedom of movement coming back.” He said the public should decide the future relationship and that he would not “run ahead of public opinion”, but called for an “honest discussion” about how migration has changed since Brexit.

His recent remarks have not always been consistent; Downing Street said he was “not leaning either way”. Labour’s manifesto red lines – no customs union, single market or free movement – apply for the rest of this Parliament.

Both sides

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has warned against reopening Brexit; Mr Burnham told The Economist that critics had “misread the mood”. The Liberal Democrats’ Europe spokesman Al Pinkerton called the food deal “a step in the right direction” but “a patch, not a fix”, and urged a return to the single market and a customs union. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood declined to say whether she backed free movement, but said losing access to EU databases had had “a very significant impact” on managing migration.

What it means for Poles and Polish businesses in the UK

Our view: the near-term changes concern trade and young people, not the residence rights of Poles already living here.

Settled status unchanged. None of the planned deals concerns the EU Settlement Scheme. Holders of settled or pre-settled status keep their Withdrawal Agreement rights and should keep their eVisa details up to date.

Food and logistics firms. A food deal should reduce border checks, which could cut paperwork and costs for Polish importers, wholesalers and shops. Until it takes effect, current rules apply.

Young people. A youth mobility scheme could make it easier for young Poles to come to the UK for a fixed period. Terms are not yet known – wait for official guidance on GOV.UK.

On the economic impact: the 0.4% figure is the Treasury’s own estimate, quoted by the PM. An independent assessment will only be possible once the texts are known.

Sources:

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